Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:30:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A0 0xa09b…4f84 world 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$1
other 11% +$1
finance 9% +$2
politics 5% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 +0.9% -8.7% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 16 +0.9% -8.7% 25% 0% -9.2%
all 32 -2.0% -11.3% 47% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.1%
10% -19.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.34 per $1 lost it wins $3.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage474d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 19 $38 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $22 +$2 +8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $5 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $72 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $50 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 +7%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $2 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +9%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 09 $8 $0 -2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 03 $9 $0 +1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 03 $18 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $17 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 31 $1 $0 -9%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $17 $0 +0%
Norfolk State vs. Florida Mar 23 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 21 $16 $0 +3%
Will Club Brugge win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $42 29m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $8 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $34 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $39 13h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $36 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $42 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $42 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $42 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $42 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $42 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $42 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records