Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa09d…af80 weather 698 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,338 (-5%) realized −$10,380 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate62%423W / 255L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,471
7 days−$1,610
14 days−$1,890
30 days−$1,678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$5,466
crypto 9% −$564
sports 3% −$68
finance 0% −$27
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -1.4% -10.8% 87% 20% -6.7%
≤30d 257 -3.6% -12.7% 81% 20% -8.4%
≤90d 479 -4.6% -13.7% 73% 20% -12.6%
all 678 -1.7% -11.1% 62% 23% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 23% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 15% -20.9%
15% -27.3% 13% -28.6%
20% -34.5% 11% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$73 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$2,077
Realized−$10,380
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses423 / 255
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions23
Markets (closed)678 / 698
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$290
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 678 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $192 $202 +$10 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? No 97¢ 91¢ $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? No 91¢ 100¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $94 $100 +$6 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $88 $100 +$12 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? No 91¢ 100¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? Yes 92¢ 82¢ $48 $43 −$5 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? No 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 17 $1 −$2,277 -212481%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $399 −$399 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$43 -165%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $177 +$34 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $46 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$13 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $184 +$16 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $431 +$100 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $420 +$18 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $181 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $300 +$8 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 −$45 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $202 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $481 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $251 +$15 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $250 +$10 +4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $201 +$27 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $806 +$48 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $351 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 −$78 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $152 +$37 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $427 +$51 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $581 +$28 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $501 +$13 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $356 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $94 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? Jun 13 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $305 +$123 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $211 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 84¢ $177 49m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 46¢ $45 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $17 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 46¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 46¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 46¢ $23 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 5¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 87¢ $44 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $190 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 2¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 2¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,076.56 · official $2,076.56 (match) · 3500 history records