Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0a8…e606 other 98 markets active 9h ago coverage 391d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,668 (+4%) realized +$1,668 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%55W / 43L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$473per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 391d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$2,557
finance 17% −$794
tech 13% +$1,385
politics 9% +$1,458
world 1% −$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 21 -32.2% -38.6% 43% 38% -16.7%
≤90d 75 -20.7% -28.3% 52% 48% -15.5%
all 98 -16.4% -24.4% 56% 47% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 47% -11.3%
10% -31.6% 34% -19.8%
15% -38.2% 26% -27.5%
20% -44.3% 21% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$541) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$250 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

391d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,668
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses55 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage391d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $93 −$66 -71%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$14 +70%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $1,219 −$1,200 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $2,797 −$1,026 -37%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $603 +$112 +19%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,525 +$836 +55%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,422 +$161 +11%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $615 −$615 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $407 −$112 -28%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $1,311 +$266 +20%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 06 $342 −$342 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1,315 +$743 +56%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 04 $256 +$27 +11%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $559 +$304 +54%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $614 −$60 -10%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? May 30 $732 +$67 +9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $410 −$23 -6%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 28 $838 −$136 -16%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $421 −$30 -7%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? May 23 $234 +$184 +79%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $2,284 −$1,508 -66%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? May 21 $965 +$525 +54%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $541 +$107 +20%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? May 19 $1,235 +$49 +4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $306 −$101 -33%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $1,071 −$50 -5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $660 +$412 +62%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $417 +$242 +58%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11? May 12 $194 +$202 +104%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8? May 09 $181 +$21 +12%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 07 $450 −$435 -97%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $143 +$58 +41%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6? May 07 $111 +$32 +29%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5? May 06 $81 −$24 -30%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $850 −$29 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4? May 05 $733 −$578 -79%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1? May 02 $559 +$71 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $477 −$70 -15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $365 −$172 -47%
Meta (META) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $51 −$50 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $250 −$49 -20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 27 $332 −$29 -9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24? Apr 25 $292 +$140 +48%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $350 −$343 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 23 $541 +$102 +19%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $330 −$326 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 20 $586 −$231 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 51¢ $10 9h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 38¢ $41 9h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 52¢ $25 28h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 76¢ $61 28h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 57¢ $31 29h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 74¢ $2 32h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 61¢ $10 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 66¢ $10 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 48¢ $10 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 44¢ $10 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 58¢ $20 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 49¢ $102 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 38¢ $102 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 33¢ $103 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 60¢ $203 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 71¢ $101 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 69¢ $101 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 69¢ $304 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 64¢ $203 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 76¢ $151 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 22¢ $134 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 78¢ $252 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 34¢ $271 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 61¢ $51 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 47¢ $102 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 40¢ $102 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 54¢ $1,018 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 61¢ $102 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 61¢ $102 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 60¢ $203 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 457 history records