Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0a8…2282 sports 300 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,151 (-11%) realized −$2,143 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%95W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$187est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$179
7 days−$330
14 days−$279
30 days−$927
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$1,191
other 17% −$685
crypto 2% −$202
culture 1% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -14.9% -23.0% 43% 43% -20.0%
≤30d 72 -9.3% -17.9% 43% 42% -20.1%
≤90d 173 -14.1% -22.2% 34% 32% -19.5%
all 299 -20.2% -27.8% 32% 30% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 30% -19.8%
10% -34.7% 28% -27.5%
15% -41.0% 24% -34.5%
20% -46.8% 20% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$40 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$2,143
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses95 / 204
Est. fees paid−$187
Open positions1
Markets (closed)299 / 300
History coverage165d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 44¢ $81 $74 −$8 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $184 +$100 +54%
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $69 +$16 +23%
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $147 +$21 +15%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $94 +$52 +55%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $106 −$11 -10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $156 −$154 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $80 +$95 +118%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $63 −$62 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $67 −$65 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $87 +$43 +49%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $87 −$85 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $87 −$85 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 −$88 -88%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 −$15 -38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $405 −$400 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $48 −$45 -94%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $156 +$81 +52%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$29 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$423 +413%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $66 +$36 +55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $129 +$138 +107%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $87 +$42 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $11 −$10 -97%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $33 +$133 +398%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $118 +$5 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $30 −$12 -41%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $45 +$24 +53%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $271 −$44 -16%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $61 +$51 +84%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $59 −$58 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $60 +$61 +101%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $30 +$20 +64%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $22 −$11 -52%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $52 −$52 -99%
CR Flamengo vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $88 −$87 -99%
Rosenborg BK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 5.5 May 29 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Hamarkameratene (-2.5) May 29 $1 −$1 -99%
IR Iran vs. Gambia: O/U 3.5 May 29 $1 +$2 +238%
IR Iran vs. Gambia: O/U 2.5 May 29 $9 +$6 +70%
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5 May 29 $77 −$75 -98%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 May 28 $52 −$51 -98%
Egypt vs. Russia: O/U 1.5 May 28 $134 −$49 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $82 11m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $284 18m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $184 25m
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 64¢ $85 1h
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $69 2h
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $168 2h
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $147 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 67¢ $147 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $94 20h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $94 20h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $106 22h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $150 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $175 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $80 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $63 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $67 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 92¢ $130 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $87 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $87 3d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $87 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $13 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $7 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $5 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $78 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $23 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $23 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $24 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.52 · official $73.52 (match) · 565 history records