Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0a8…e178 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-11%) realized +$4 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$33
other 35% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -55.7% -59.9% 20% 20% -76.8%
≤30d 5 -55.7% -59.9% 20% 20% -76.8%
≤90d 5 -55.7% -59.9% 20% 20% -76.8%
all 5 -55.7% -59.9% 20% 20% -76.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.9% 20% -76.8%
10% -63.7% 20% -79.1%
15% -67.3% 20% -81.1%
20% -70.5% 20% -82.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 42¢ $34 $22 −$12 (-35%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $6 +$4 +70%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $26 −$18 -67%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 −$2 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $26 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $8 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $6 8h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $11 9h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 51¢ $8 9h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $9 9h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 9h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $3 9h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $6 10h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.09 · official $29.41 · 13 history records