Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A0 0xa0a9…a9c0 crypto 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$544 (-12%) realized −$519 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%46W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$821
politics 14% −$59
other 7% +$28
world 4% $0
sports 4% +$54
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -31.1% -37.6% 33% 33% +5.2%
≤30d 30 -31.1% -37.6% 33% 33% +5.2%
≤90d 151 -18.2% -26.0% 30% 26% -25.8%
all 151 -18.2% -26.0% 30% 26% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 26% -25.8%
10% -33.0% 20% -32.9%
15% -39.5% 17% -39.4%
20% -45.4% 13% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$519
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses46 / 105
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)151 / 159
History coverage79d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 27¢ 4¢ $27 $5 −$23 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 +$9 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +57%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$5 -81%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $90 +$80 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +146%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 14 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 14 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 14 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 14 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 14 $7 −$6 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 $0 -12%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 14 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 14 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 14 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 33h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $7 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 43h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 43h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 43h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 43h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.62 · official $151.62 (match) · 555 history records