Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0b0…a5fb world 247 markets active 4h ago coverage 101d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,314 (+1%) realized +$1,208 · open +$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%104W / 134L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$590per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$5,506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 101d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$1,667
other 8% +$853
politics 6% −$517
sports 3% +$1,133
crypto 2% −$178
economics 1% +$430
finance 1% +$289
tech 0% +$95
culture 0% +$60
weather 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -17.1% -25.0% 33% 25% -21.8%
≤30d 52 -9.1% -17.8% 48% 38% -8.7%
≤90d 195 -6.1% -15.1% 47% 34% -8.5%
all 238 -11.0% -19.5% 44% 31% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 31% -7.1%
10% -27.2% 22% -16.0%
15% ← realistic here -34.2% 16% -24.1%
20% -40.7% 12% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$822) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$136 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$5,506
Realized+$1,208
Unrealized+$106
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses104 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions8
Markets (closed)238 / 247
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$590
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 85¢ 94¢ $1,087 $1,192 +$105 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,177 +$177 (+18%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 80¢ 98¢ $637 $786 +$149 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 28¢ $1,198 $704 −$494 (-41%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 60¢ 74¢ $419 $514 +$95 (+23%)
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No 82¢ 92¢ $407 $456 +$48 (+12%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 60¢ 56¢ $363 $343 −$19 (-5%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 75¢ 86¢ $288 $334 +$46 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $96 −$32 -33%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $76 −$60 -79%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $407 +$118 +29%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 15 $12 −$3 -27%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $138 −$6 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $413 +$84 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$10 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $1,177 −$476 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $61 +$41 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $100 −$6 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $191 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 08 $154 −$27 -18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $130 −$77 -59%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $280 +$116 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $18 −$7 -38%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $976 −$412 -42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $683 +$111 +16%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $2,660 −$1,247 -47%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Jun 03 $35 −$22 -64%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $2,061 +$815 +40%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $905 +$754 +83%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 01 $149 −$66 -44%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $106 −$105 -99%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $189 −$89 -47%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 01 $155 −$15 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $526 +$61 +12%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 01 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $97 +$54 +56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,116 +$699 +33%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $56 +$19 +33%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $715 +$227 +32%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $471 −$246 -52%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $390 +$120 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $559 +$119 +21%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 26 $1,221 +$296 +24%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $1,881 −$796 -42%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 25 $149 +$125 +84%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $198 +$102 +51%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 25 $187 −$5 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 25 $808 +$289 +36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $1,012 +$200 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $448 +$33 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,204 +$90 +8%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 22 $126 +$108 +86%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 21 $341 −$3 -1%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $64 −$57 -89%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 20 $1,793 +$169 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $167 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $64 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $44 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $167 16h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $108 28h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $174 28h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $124 32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $122 41h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $196 43h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $2 43h
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 44h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $22 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,000 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $112 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $20 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $138 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 78¢ $407 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $51 4d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $337 4d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $26 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $456 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,505.68 · official $5,504.57 (match) · 3500 history records