Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A0 0xa0b1…f219 sports 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$1,689 (+19%) realized +$1,762 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%56W / 73L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,625
7 days+$1,728
14 days+$1,606
30 days+$1,606
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$1,174
other 34% +$892
crypto 12% −$454
politics 3% +$65
economics 1% −$4
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +127.5% +105.9% 72% 72% +111.2%
≤30d 53 +60.8% +45.5% 55% 55% +49.4%
≤90d 53 +60.8% +45.5% 55% 55% +49.4%
all 129 +27.2% +15.1% 43% 43% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.1% 43% +8.9%
10% +4.1% 41% -1.6%
15% -6.0% 41% -11.1%
20% -15.2% 38% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +65% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$52 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$1,762
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses56 / 73
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage148d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 48¢ $180 $128 −$52 (-29%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 42¢ $65 $44 −$21 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $118 +$86 +73%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $41 +$26 +63%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $76 +$41 +55%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $24 +$30 +123%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $61 +$110 +180%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $25 +$158 +624%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $100 +$180 +180%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $51 +$243 +473%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $41 +$439 +1067%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $84 +$64 +76%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $112 +$50 +44%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $47 +$113 +239%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $76 +$62 +82%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $51 +$60 +118%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $22 −$21 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $34 −$21 -62%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $37 −$36 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$40 +78%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$91 +442%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 +$23 +171%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$15 +152%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $27 +$41 +151%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $29 +$18 +61%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 −$41 -40%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $42 −$23 -55%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 14 $28 −$4 -14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9 +$10 +107%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $7 +$11 +165%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $26 +$54 +213%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $87 +$253 +292%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9 +$11 +121%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 +$8 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $319 −$264 -83%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $160 +$131 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $56 9m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $66 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $126 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $68 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $68 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $41 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $76 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $54 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $171 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $183 18h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $280 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $294 18h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $480 18h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $15 19h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $26 19h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $51 19h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $49 19h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 100¢ $148 19h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $24 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $51 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $25 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $61 20h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $162 20h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $94 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $73 23h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $8 23h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 23h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.69 · official $171.69 (match) · 303 history records