Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa0b2…d9f7 crypto 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,009 (+27%) realized +$2,026 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%112W / 72L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$703
7 days−$422
14 days−$426
30 days−$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$96
sports 22% +$1,078
other 1% +$3
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +14.1% +3.2% 60% 52% -18.3%
≤30d 76 +9.9% -0.5% 58% 51% -18.4%
≤90d 184 +3.5% -6.4% 61% 46% +2.8%
all 184 +3.5% -6.4% 61% 46% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 46% +2.8%
10% -15.3% 39% -7.1%
15% -23.5% 37% -16.1%
20% -31.0% 30% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$30 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$2,026
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses112 / 72
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)184 / 185
History coverage75d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 51¢ 36¢ $58 $41 −$17 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $407 −$396 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $259 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $177 −$170 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $93 +$18 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET Jun 22 $134 +$40 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $93 +$43 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $416 +$315 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $238 +$195 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $63 −$21 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $400 −$389 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $207 +$171 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $285 −$275 -96%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $68 +$121 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$22 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $63 −$51 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$31 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $155 +$119 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $81 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $73 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $106 +$69 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $143 −$141 -99%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $2 +$4 +216%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $1 +$4 +307%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $2 +$2 +86%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $2 +$2 +101%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $2 +$5 +262%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $1 +$2 +152%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel Jun 17 $2 +$3 +206%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $2 +$2 +86%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.04 · official $41.04 (match) · 562 history records