Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0b4…a0ae world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$12
other 14% −$1
politics 14% −$1
sports 7% $0
culture 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 17 +2.0% -7.7% 41% 12% -7.7%
≤90d 17 +2.0% -7.7% 41% 12% -7.7%
all 40 -1.9% -11.2% 32% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 5% -8.6%
10% -19.7% 0% -17.4%
15% -27.5% 0% -25.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.34 per $1 lost it wins $5.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage273d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $51 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $52 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $37 +$4 +11%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $14 +$2 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $43 +$3 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $4 $0 -4%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $3 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 30 $3 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Sep 28 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 12h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 12h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 12h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 12h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 12h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $33 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $52 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $35 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $17 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $52 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $27 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $26 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $52 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $41 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $37 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records