Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0b6…09b2 other 253 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 239L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$28
14 days−$35
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$48
sports 23% −$21
culture 8% −$8
politics 7% −$6
crypto 7% −$5
economics 4% −$3
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)252 / 253
History coverage139d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $729 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $349 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $492 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $396 −$2 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $267 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $118 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $425 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $484 −$2 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $365 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $399 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $243 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $299 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $373 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $587 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $693 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $354 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $608 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $947 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $249 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $830 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $504 +$1 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $204 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $509 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $138 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $614 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $248 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $538 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 5h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 7h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 9h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 11h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 14h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 16h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 18h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 19h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $54 24h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 25h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 31h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 32h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 34h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 36h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 37h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 38h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 40h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 42h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 43h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 44h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.83 · official $53.83 (match) · 1502 history records