Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:12:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa0b7…c43e crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$518 (+12%) realized +$518 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +2.6% -7.2% 57% 57% -5.0%
≤30d 14 +2.6% -7.2% 57% 57% -5.0%
≤90d 14 +2.6% -7.2% 57% 57% -5.0%
all 14 +2.6% -7.2% 57% 57% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 57% -5.0%
10% -16.1% 57% -14.1%
15% -24.2% 57% -22.4%
20% -31.6% 57% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$295 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$518
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $207 −$200 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $206 +$127 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $207 +$180 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $309 −$300 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $206 +$165 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $206 +$148 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $207 +$177 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $1,232 −$1,232 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $879 +$770 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $413 +$323 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$87 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $55 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $152 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $206 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $189 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $18 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $112 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $197 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $188 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $206 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $166 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1,024 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $879 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $413 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records