Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0b9…dec5 sports 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$3
other 26% −$24
politics 21% −$1
crypto 6% −$4
world 5% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 0% -10.4%
all 148 -0.9% -10.4% 11% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 132
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage165d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 28 $27 $0 +1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $30 $0 -2%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 19 $3 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Feb 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $42 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $67 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $70 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 16 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 13 $68 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 13 $73 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 13 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 9h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $30 14d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 23d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $26 30d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 30d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $30 44d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $30 44d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 95¢ $3 129d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $3 129d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 129d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 129d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 96¢ $33 129d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 96¢ $33 129d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $28 129d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $28 129d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $35 129d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $35 129d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $30 129d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $30 129d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $27 129d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $27 129d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $29 129d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $29 129d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 129d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 129d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $28 129d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $28 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 563 history records