Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A0 0xa0ba…0ecc sports 6 markets active 5d ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$214 (+32%) realized +$214 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$318
world 24% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.1% -36.8% 33% 33% -21.9%
≤30d 6 +23.4% +11.6% 67% 67% +18.6%
≤90d 6 +23.4% +11.6% 67% 67% +18.6%
all 6 +23.4% +11.6% 67% 67% +18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 67% +18.6%
10% +0.9% 67% +7.3%
15% -8.8% 50% -3.1%
20% -17.8% 33% -12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$55 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage5d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia Jun 21 $186 +$63 +34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $54 −$24 -44%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $108 −$87 -80%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 18 $131 +$145 +111%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 18 $102 +$42 +41%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 17 $87 +$68 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records