Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0bc…cb49 other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$16
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$12
politics 23% −$11
sports 18% −$6
crypto 12% −$2
world 6% −$3
culture 4% −$2
tech 4% −$2
economics 3% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 63 -0.7% -10.2% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 109 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 137 -0.4% -9.9% 18% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 112
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage103d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $92 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $219 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $99 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $42 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $63 −$2 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 16 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $453 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $53 −$1 -3%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $117 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $97 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $236 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 05 $66 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $64 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $54 −$1 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $50 −$3 -5%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $54 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $91 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $53 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $55 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 9h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $57 9h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $57 16h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 93¢ $56 17h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 94¢ $57 24h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $39 24h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $39 33h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $53 33h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $53 41h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 42h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $52 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $52 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $62 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $63 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $42 3d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $42 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $44 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $44 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 95¢ $49 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $8 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $22 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $19 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 89¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.44 · official $54.44 (match) · 495 history records