Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A0 0xa0bd…9fad sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$1
politics 11% $0
other 7% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 22 -16.2% -24.1% 0% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -31.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -38.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -44.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage572d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship? Dec 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 14 $0 $0 -83%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? May 08 $0 $0 +0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $135 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 05 $0 $0 -42%
Will Red Bull Salzburg win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 14 $0 $0 -83%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 21 $236 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 21 $60 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 2h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 22d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 22d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $10 53d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $10 53d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 80d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 80d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 93d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 93d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $10 115d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $10 115d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $12 143d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $12 143d
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $10 179d
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $10 179d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 205d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 205d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 232d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 232d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 259d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 264d
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes $0 486d
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes $1 495d
Will Torino win the Serie A? SELL Yes $2 525d
Will Torino win the Serie A? BUY Yes $2 526d
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes $0 526d
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes $0 538d
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes $0 540d
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes $0 546d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records