Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A0 0xa0be…e6c2 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$156 (+12%) realized +$127 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 177d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.1% -16.9% 29% 29% -57.8%
≤30d 7 -8.1% -16.9% 29% 29% -57.8%
≤90d 7 -8.1% -16.9% 29% 29% -57.8%
all 15 +27.8% +15.6% 60% 60% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.6% 60% +4.3%
10% +4.5% 60% -5.7%
15% -5.6% 60% -14.8%
20% -14.8% 60% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$86 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage177d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 53¢ 100¢ $33 $62 +$29 (+89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
ITF Monastir: Ergi Kirkin vs Billy Blaydes Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $70 +$63 +90%
Spread: Lions (-2.5) Jun 20 $204 −$204 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$80 +354%
Spread: Lions (-6.5) Jan 15 $220 +$198 +90%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Dec 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Dec 25 $100 +$82 +82%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Dec 25 $80 +$61 +77%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Dec 25 $88 +$93 +105%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Dec 25 $58 +$30 +51%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Dec 25 $100 +$53 +53%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Dec 25 $45 +$51 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $33 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 50¢ $67 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $46 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $48 4h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Marie Bouzkova 52¢ $70 8h
ITF Monastir: Ergi Kirkin vs Billy Blaydes BUY Billy Blaydes 26¢ $48 9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY 22¢ $23 15h
Spread: Lions (-2.5) BUY Lions 46¢ $204 176d
Spread: Lions (-6.5) BUY Vikings 53¢ $220 176d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $100 177d
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) BUY Knicks 46¢ $100 177d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 99¢ $141 177d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 56¢ $80 177d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) SELL Weibo Gaming 99¢ $180 177d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) BUY Weibo Gaming 50¢ $50 177d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) BUY Weibo Gaming 46¢ $38 177d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Weibo Gaming 100¢ $88 177d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 66¢ $58 177d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $153 177d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 65¢ $100 177d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas 100¢ $96 177d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 47¢ $45 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.04 · official $62.04 (match) · 32 history records