Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:20:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A0 0xa0c0…d2a4 sports 114 markets active 3h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$21 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate44%37W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$28
other 22% −$8
politics 13% −$1
world 10% +$5
weather 9% +$3
tech 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% −$2
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -8.2% -16.9% 39% 22% +0.9%
≤30d 49 -8.2% -16.9% 39% 22% +0.9%
≤90d 85 -8.8% -17.5% 44% 26% -13.0%
all 85 -8.8% -17.5% 44% 26% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 26% -13.0%
10% -25.4% 21% -21.4%
15% -32.6% 19% -29.0%
20% -39.2% 18% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses37 / 48
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions29
Markets (closed)85 / 114
History coverage77d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 32¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 38¢ 38¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+113%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 61¢ 98¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+60%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 70¢ 81¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? No 90¢ 89¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $7 $0 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $7 $0 -6%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $3 $0 -7%
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $3 $0 -4%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $3 $0 +10%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 18 $6 $0 -6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $3 $0 +9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$3 -45%
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Jun 18 $3 $0 -4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$32 +107%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $61 +$46 +76%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +60%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $4 +$3 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4 +$7 +172%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $4 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -1%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$9 +226%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $4 +$3 +86%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $8 $0 -6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -7%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $4 $0 -10%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $22 −$21 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 73¢ $3 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 80¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 3h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $3 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 20¢ $3 3h
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $3 3h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $3 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $3 3h
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 3h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $3 3h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 3h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $3 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $3 3h
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 95¢ $3 3h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 3h
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 70¢ $3 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 78¢ $3 3h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.75 · official $116.49 (match) · 209 history records