Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:58:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A0 0xa0c3…9962 sports 39 markets active 2d ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,053 (-20%) realized −$2,048 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$1,971
culture 19% +$75
other 4% −$108
crypto 2% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +49.3% +35.1% 50% 50% -6.5%
≤30d 2 +49.3% +35.1% 50% 50% -6.5%
≤90d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 33% -88.3%
all 37 -14.9% -23.0% 27% 22% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 22% -28.5%
10% -30.4% 16% -35.3%
15% -37.1% 14% -41.5%
20% -43.3% 14% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -87% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +23% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$93 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$2,048
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage245d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $21 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $54 +$10 +18%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 26 $501 −$101 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22? Mar 19 $94 +$8 +8%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $1,468 −$13 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Mar 16 $73 −$21 -29%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Mar 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Mar 16 $91 +$30 +34%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Mar 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Mar 16 $105 −$47 -45%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Mar 16 $80 −$41 -52%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Mar 16 $100 −$85 -85%
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Mar 16 $1,481 +$201 +14%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Mar 16 $514 −$170 -33%
Bulls vs. Knicks Mar 16 $854 −$823 -96%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $498 +$81 +16%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 12 $10 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5PM ET Mar 07 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $7 +$56 +748%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 01 $738 +$45 +6%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Oct 21 $3,085 −$770 -25%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Oct 17 $10 −$2 -20%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 16 $5 +$6 +117%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 15 $46 −$32 -69%
Will Meteora launch a token in 2025? Oct 14 $10 $0 -0%
Panthers vs. Flyers Oct 14 $10 −$3 -28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 14? Oct 13 $10 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $34 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $9 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $22 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $49 5d
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car SELL Israel Adesanya 57¢ $400 83d
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car BUY Israel Adesanya 57¢ $400 85d
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car BUY Israel Adesanya 57¢ $101 85d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $102 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $94 91d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 100¢ $194 94d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 36¢ $103 94d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 53¢ $103 94d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 53¢ $63 94d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 53¢ $35 94d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 94d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 53¢ $124 94d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 35¢ $268 94d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 33¢ $253 95d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 56¢ $250 95d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 32¢ $103 95d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 31¢ $99 95d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 58¢ $99 96d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 58¢ $99 96d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 34¢ $53 97d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 97d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 34¢ $340 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.87 · official $35.87 (match) · 171 history records