Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A0
0xa0c3…5b9a
world · 84 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$60,226 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$60,299 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$15,037
Realized+$60,299
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses59 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)74 / 84
Avg bet$8,474
Trades / day62.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 10 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$7,685
14 days+$35,869
30 days+$36,189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $13,123 $13,132 +$10 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 68¢ $844 $822 −$22 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 85¢ $429 $423 −$5 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 57¢ $345 $374 +$28 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $184 $182 −$2 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $48 $54 +$6 (+13%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $24 $16 −$8 (-34%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 26¢ 25¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+210%)
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $5,770 +$13 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $419 +$2 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $999 +$1 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,077 +$23 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $1,280 +$9 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $2,045 +$18 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,628 +$27 +1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $3,425 +$802 +23%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $49,870 +$6,788 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $216,534 −$4,581 -2%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $663 +$3,880 +585%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $80,973 +$24,161 +30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $32,304 +$662 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Jun 01 $93 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $33,523 +$5,136 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $468 −$36 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $689 −$2 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $12,903 −$1,070 -8%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? May 26 $1,201 +$14 +1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25? May 26 $2,525 +$31 +1%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 20 $138 +$60 +44%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 18 $82 +$11 +13%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18? May 18 $995 +$236 +24%
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $32 −$31 -96%
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 5M ETH before 2027? May 12 $2,692 +$8 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11? May 12 $967 −$103 -11%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11? May 11 $1,358 +$102 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 07 $191 +$9 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10? May 06 $20,634 +$21 +0%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 05 $59 −$8 -14%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 05 $5,061 +$3,539 +70%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 05 $3,631 −$336 -9%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 05 $133 +$3 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 05 $696 +$905 +130%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4? May 05 $11,887 +$110 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? May 05 $21,256 +$1,548 +7%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 4? May 05 $676 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $49 +$4 +7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 04 $451 +$530 +118%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $1,277 +$85 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $2,538 +$438 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 3? May 04 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 03 $1,350 +$50 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 03 $2,954 +$80 +3%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 03 $18 −$18 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 03 $1,790 −$190 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 70% +$34,429
world 21% +$26,069
tech 4% −$113
economics 2% +$15
other 2% −$106
politics 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $92 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $92 14m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $181 30m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $36 35m
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,990 5h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $322 11h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $332 13h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 13h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,487 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $88 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $72 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $78 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $97 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $2 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $102 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $54 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $13 16h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $173 22h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $123 23h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $19 37h
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 BUY Yes 26¢ $13 38h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 44h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $83 44h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $496 45h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $997 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.3% -5.7% 100% 20% +0.6%
≤30d 28 +17.2% +6.0% 79% 32% -1.9%
≤90d 74 +60.5% +45.2% 80% 26% -1.3%
all 74 +60.5% +45.2% 80% 26% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover62.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.2% 26% -1.3%
10% +31.3% 20% -10.7%
15% ← realistic here +18.7% 15% -19.3%
20% +7.0% 14% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,037.38 · official $15,037.38 (match) · 3500 history records