Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A0
0xa0c3…8640
other · 528 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$99 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$95 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses210 / 310
Open positions8
Markets (closed)520 / 528
History coverage223d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%
Chart Positions 8 History 520 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$0
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 30¢ 89¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+193%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+112%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$10 +193%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $6 +$6 +94%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $9 −$2 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $9 +$5 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $9 −$2 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $9 −$2 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $1 $0 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $2 $0 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $6 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $3 +$5 +164%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $13 +$2 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $3 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $7 −$2 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $8 +$3 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $3 −$1 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $2 −$1 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $4 −$2 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $3 +$2 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 73% +$113
sports 23% −$8
economics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 8h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 29h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 30h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 34h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 35h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 38h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 38h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 38h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 38h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.4% -13.5% 33% 25% +1.4%
≤30d 63 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 32% -0.3%
≤90d 223 +12.1% +1.5% 35% 31% -3.0%
all 520 +4.4% -5.5% 40% 36% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 36% -6.0%
10% -14.6% 28% -15.0%
15% -22.8% 24% -23.2%
20% -30.4% 19% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.51 · official $16.52 (match) · 2138 history records