Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A0 0xa0d3…5b5e sports 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$478 (-1%) realized −$5,590 · open +$1,475
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%63W / 47L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$833per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$414est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$26,727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,789
14 days−$3,739
30 days−$3,860
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$4,716
economics 18% −$346
crypto 5% +$674
politics 3% +$262
other 2% +$169
world 1% +$143
finance 1% −$321
tech 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +21.5% +9.9% 67% 67% -40.1%
≤30d 10 +26.1% +14.1% 70% 70% -39.2%
≤90d 55 -18.0% -25.8% 49% 40% -13.2%
all 110 -10.5% -19.0% 57% 42% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 42% -16.4%
10% -26.7% 31% -24.4%
15% -33.8% 23% -31.7%
20% -40.3% 15% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$346 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$26,727
Realized−$5,590
Unrealized+$1,475
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses63 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$414
Open positions4
Markets (closed)110 / 114
History coverage244d
Avg bet$833
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 72¢ 81¢ $11,914 $13,542 +$1,628 (+14%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 50¢ 74¢ $8,790 $13,050 +$4,260 (+48%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 59¢ 26¢ $177 $78 −$99 (-56%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $109 $55 −$53 (-49%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in January? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? No 33¢ 0¢ $165 $0 −$165 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in February? No 47¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in March? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $127 $0 −$127 (-100%)
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in March? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? No 86¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? No 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in January? No 66¢ 0¢ $330 $0 −$330 (-100%)
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in February? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in January? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $246 $0 −$246 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 10 $8,360 −$3,994 -48%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $1,359 +$243 +18%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $47 +$50 +107%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 10 $1,163 −$219 -19%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $280 +$130 +46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $150 +$50 +33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 18 $136 +$64 +47%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? May 18 $248 −$246 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $40 +$60 +152%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $30 +$21 +70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April? May 13 $1 +$1 +203%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April? May 13 $335 +$124 +37%
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? May 13 $11,118 +$1,142 +10%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April? May 11 $132 −$127 -97%
Chirayu Rana fired? May 01 $116 −$14 -12%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 01 $254 +$78 +31%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April? Apr 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Apr 10 $805 +$91 +11%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? Apr 10 $7,394 +$2,611 +35%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March? Apr 10 $3 +$5 +207%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in March? Apr 10 $94 +$53 +56%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March? Apr 10 $188 +$12 +6%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? Apr 10 $310 +$67 +22%
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.6% in March? Apr 08 $889 +$71 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $279 +$70 +25%
Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Apr 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in March? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Apr 01 $51 +$7 +13%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January? Mar 26 $165 −$165 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 5? Mar 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Mar 26 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February? Mar 26 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Solana dip to $120 in January? Mar 26 $462 −$462 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 26 $195 −$195 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in February? Mar 26 $149 −$143 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on February 1? Mar 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 26 $176 −$176 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Mar 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in March? Mar 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 21 $64 −$26 -40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 21 $182 +$83 +46%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 21 $22 +$3 +14%
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $504 +$128 +25%
US recession by end of 2026? Mar 18 $96 −$6 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 70¢ $2,174 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $331 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $68 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $191 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $60 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 64¢ $548 1h
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? SELL No 87¢ $895 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 63¢ $1,117 2d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $111 4d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 50¢ $947 4d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL No 91¢ $1,602 4d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? SELL No 97¢ $7 4d
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $97 4d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $674 4d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 45¢ $272 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $410 4d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $461 5d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $237 6d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $638 9d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $109 16d
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? BUY No 72¢ $2,190 17d
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? BUY No 71¢ $613 17d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 37¢ $19 17d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 37¢ $602 17d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 36¢ $1,119 18d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 34¢ $10 18d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 88¢ $190 23d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 87¢ $459 23d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 85¢ $57 23d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 84¢ $393 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,726.96 · official $26,728.62 (match) · 655 history records