Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A0 0xa0d4…07be crypto 197 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate45%85W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$9
14 days−$30
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$30
sports 26% +$97
other 13% −$70
politics 3% −$11
finance 3% −$14
world 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -19.4% -27.1% 19% 19% -5.7%
≤30d 169 -13.2% -21.4% 46% 22% -6.7%
≤90d 188 -14.8% -23.0% 45% 22% -8.0%
all 188 -14.8% -23.0% 45% 22% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 22% -8.0%
10% -30.3% 18% -16.8%
15% -37.1% 14% -24.9%
20% -43.2% 12% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses85 / 103
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)188 / 197
History coverage155d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $48 −$3 -7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W Jun 23 $4 +$11 +310%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026 Jun 21 $4 −$1 -42%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 21 $5 +$16 +347%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 21 $10 +$9 +85%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 Jun 21 $5 +$7 +141%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $28 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -66%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 +$7 +103%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 +$11 +1115%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 +$5 +124%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$9 +874%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $56 0m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Ghana: Both BUY 10¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $19 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $45 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $48 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will France win on 2026-06- BUY 15¢ $3 18h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2. BUY 7¢ $5 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026 SELL 14¢ $2 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W BUY 24¢ $4 43h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026 BUY 23¢ $4 43h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $38 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 75¢ $28 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY 41¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 53¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 22¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1 BUY 30¢ $4 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: B BUY 15¢ $5 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Czechia vs. South Africa: Bo BUY 9¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.66 · official $58.66 · 472 history records