Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa0d8…56bb weather 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,661 (+13%) realized +$3,559 · open +$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate61%69W / 44L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$961now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$3,504
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 46 -32.8% -39.2% 50% 35% -4.5%
≤90d 113 +7.1% -3.1% 61% 41% +1.7%
all 113 +7.1% -3.1% 61% 41% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 41% +1.7%
10% -12.4% 32% -8.0%
15% -20.9% 19% -16.9%
20% -28.6% 13% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$33 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$961
Realized+$3,559
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses69 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage83d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? No 60¢ 68¢ $789 $889 +$100 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? No 86¢ 88¢ $70 $73 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $132 +$34 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $29 −$13 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $86 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $470 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1,050 +$309 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $33 −$28 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 31? May 31 $92 +$70 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 31? May 31 $607 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 31? May 31 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 20? May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 10? May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8? May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 11? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 21? May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 24? May 31 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 10? May 31 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 14? May 31 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 13? May 31 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 21? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 20? May 31 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 20? May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 24? May 31 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 19? May 31 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 21? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? May 31 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 21? May 31 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on May 30? May 30 $594 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $910 +$60 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $44 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $118 −$116 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 29? May 30 $262 +$33 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29? May 30 $174 +$61 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 29? May 29 $266 +$126 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 29? May 29 $72 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $223 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $165 +$16 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $189 +$47 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 28? May 28 $5 +$7 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $280 +$38 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $303 +$74 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $278 +$90 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 23? May 23 $264 +$101 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 22? May 22 $245 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 22? May 22 $21 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 22? May 22 $107 +$21 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 17? May 17 $201 +$13 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? May 16 $8 −$6 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 15? May 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 15? May 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 63¢ $53 52m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 63¢ $73 53m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 63¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 60¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 60¢ $574 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 60¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $71 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 57¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 57¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 57¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? SELL No 30¢ $16 15d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 15d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? BUY No 70¢ $48 15d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? BUY No 69¢ $7 15d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? BUY No 80¢ $16 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? BUY No 79¢ $76 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? BUY No 52¢ $29 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? BUY No 78¢ $40 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY Yes 82¢ $0 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY Yes 82¢ $11 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY Yes 80¢ $17 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY Yes 82¢ $13 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $961.18 · official $998.21 · 975 history records