Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0d8…366f crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$83 (-13%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$85
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +27.3% +15.2% 67% 44% -0.7%
≤30d 26 -11.7% -20.1% 46% 35% -22.1%
≤90d 26 -11.7% -20.1% 46% 35% -22.1%
all 26 -11.7% -20.1% 46% 35% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 35% -22.1%
10% -27.8% 27% -29.5%
15% -34.7% 27% -36.4%
20% -41.1% 27% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage29d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$8 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$121 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 17 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 17 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 17 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 16 $55 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $7 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $11 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 28d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Hanwha Life Esports 48¢ $2 28d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $42 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $42 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records