Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0d8…0a00 sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$641 (-22%) realized −$621 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day122.0pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$898
other 34% +$226
tech 0% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -11.2% -19.6% 42% 39% -30.0%
≤30d 33 -11.2% -19.6% 42% 39% -30.0%
≤90d 33 -11.2% -19.6% 42% 39% -30.0%
all 33 -11.2% -19.6% 42% 39% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 39% -30.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 36% -36.7%
15% -34.3% 36% -42.9%
20% -40.8% 33% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$89 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$621
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage6d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day122.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Hapoel Tel-Aviv 37¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 $0 -1%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $99 +$57 +58%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +85%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 20 $2 $0 +8%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 -5%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $63 −$26 -41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $30 +$35 +119%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $23 +$27 +118%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $74 +$43 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $30 −$28 -92%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $22 +$15 +66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $125 +$175 +140%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $161 −$161 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $240 −$141 -59%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $91 −$89 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $94 +$99 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $161 +$208 +130%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 +$29 +100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $395 −$270 -68%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $37 +$7 +18%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $218 +$334 +153%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 42¢ $1 25m
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 48¢ $1 25m
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 48¢ $1 25m
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 49¢ $1 25m
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 49¢ $1 25m
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 48¢ $1 25m
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 49¢ $1 26m
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 29¢ $1 28m
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 25¢ $2 29m
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 37¢ $9 32m
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL No 55¢ $83 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL No 54¢ $53 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL No 54¢ $19 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL No 54¢ $0 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL No 54¢ $0 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 33¢ $49 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 33¢ $49 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $2 2d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $2 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 42¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 7¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 60¢ $12 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 60¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 60¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 1¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 41¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 41¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 767 history records