trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 20¢ | 20¢ | $24 | $23 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? | Jun 12 | $31 | −$17 | -55% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Jun 12 | $31 | −$21 | -66% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 20 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | May 14 | $36 | −$36 | -100% |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 19 | $14 | −$2 | -12% |
| Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 14 | $10 | −$3 | -29% |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 14 | $10 | −$4 | -40% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 1? | Apr 14 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | Mar 28 | $21 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 27 | $20 | −$5 | -23% |
| Clavicular charged again by June 30? | Mar 27 | $21 | +$49 | +232% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 19 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 18 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Mar 17 | $9 | +$55 | +614% |
| Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? | Feb 28 | $10 | −$2 | -15% |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Feb 28 | $11 | +$5 | +47% |
| US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? | Feb 28 | $8 | +$16 | +203% |
| US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? | Feb 28 | $8 | +$20 | +245% |
| US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? | Feb 28 | $8 | +$13 | +163% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 20 | $19 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 20 | $20 | −$2 | -12% |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | Feb 09 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? | Jan 30 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-20? | Jan 30 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Napoli advance to the round of 16? | Jan 30 | $20 | +$7 | +36% |
| Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-16? | Jan 16 | $20 | −$17 | -84% |
| Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Girona FC end in a draw? | Jan 16 | $25 | +$7 | +29% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -60.5% | -64.3% | 0% | 0% | -64.3% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -80.3% | -82.1% | 0% | 0% | -79.8% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +8.4% | -2.0% | 14% | 14% | -24.1% |
| all | 27 | +15.6% | +4.6% | 30% | 30% | -21.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +4.6% | 30% | -21.9% |
| 10% | -5.4% | 30% | -29.3% |
| 15% | -14.5% | 26% | -36.2% |
| 20% | -22.9% | 19% | -42.4% |