Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A0 0xa0dd…c6c1 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$157 (+14%) realized +$157 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days+$100
14 days+$116
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$82
other 40% −$14
crypto 8% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -20.0% -27.6% 47% 33% -0.7%
≤30d 16 -17.5% -25.4% 50% 38% -0.0%
≤90d 16 -17.5% -25.4% 50% 38% -0.0%
all 16 -17.5% -25.4% 50% 38% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 38% -0.0%
10% -32.5% 31% -9.6%
15% -39.0% 19% -18.3%
20% -45.0% 6% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage8d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $101 +$9 +9%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 −$8 -8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$12 -12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $102 +$47 +46%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$12 -81%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $92 +$49 +53%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $152 +$37 +25%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$14 +46%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$4 +4%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $81 +$19 +23%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $81 +$16 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $110 31m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 32m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $94 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 2h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $97 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $90 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No $0 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $141 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $92 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $152 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 56¢ $16 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $29 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 87¢ $106 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $102 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $81 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $97 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $81 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records