Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa0e4…8048 other 10 markets active 5h ago coverage 230d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$314 (-3%) realized −$201 · open −$113
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$913per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$6,675now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$239
economics 21% +$82
sports 1% −$30
politics 1% −$51
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-56.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 8 -52.0% -56.5% 25% 12% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.5% 12% -15.2%
10% -60.7% 12% -23.3%
15% -64.5% 12% -30.7%
20% -68.0% 12% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$36 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$6,675
Realized−$201
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage230d
Avg bet$913
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,998 $4,851 −$147 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,790 $1,824 +$34 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 02 $1,862 +$52 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February? Jan 31 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 29 $37 −$20 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 09 $25 +$30 +122%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $52 −$30 -57%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Oct 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,842 4h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5,145 4h
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 98¢ $211 135d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 135d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 135d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 98¢ $14 135d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 98¢ $14 135d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 98¢ $55 135d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 135d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 98¢ $11 135d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 98¢ $44 135d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 98¢ $327 135d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 98¢ $196 135d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February? BUY No $105 136d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 98¢ $940 136d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 136d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 97¢ $971 137d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 92¢ $63 138d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 92¢ $857 138d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? SELL Yes 60¢ $17 139d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up $0 139d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up $0 139d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up $0 139d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up $0 139d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up $0 139d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up $0 139d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up $0 139d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up $0 139d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up $0 139d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up $0 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,674.55 · official $6,674.55 (match) · 42 history records