Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0ec…f7da sports 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$793 (-7%) realized −$780 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%71W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$244
7 days−$95
14 days−$95
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$785
other 42% −$181
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +9.1% -1.3% 42% 33% -10.7%
≤30d 38 +4.1% -5.8% 39% 32% -11.8%
≤90d 108 -14.1% -22.3% 36% 33% -16.8%
all 168 -16.7% -24.7% 42% 39% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 39% -17.5%
10% -31.9% 35% -25.4%
15% -38.5% 27% -32.6%
20% -44.5% 23% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$34 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$780
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses71 / 97
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions8
Markets (closed)168 / 176
History coverage109d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $652 +$3 +0%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $127 +$72 +56%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $94 +$27 +28%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $130 +$73 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $263 +$27 +10%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $94 −$29 -31%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $131 +$132 +101%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $99 −$4 -4%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -37%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $64 −$53 -83%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $129 −$75 -58%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $85 −$63 -74%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $60 +$14 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $47 +$14 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 +$70 +237%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $17 +$13 +76%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $93 −$91 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $57 −$57 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -7%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $59 −$41 -69%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $106 −$53 -50%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -92%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$10 +510%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$29 +41%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $34 −$24 -70%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $19 −$19 -98%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $33 −$32 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $30 −$21 -72%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $16 −$15 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 25 $47 −$23 -48%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Apr 25 $64 −$40 -62%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $39 −$14 -36%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $65 −$64 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $38 +$27 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $203 6m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $655 7m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $652 11m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $198 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 52¢ $127 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $121 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $94 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $204 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 89¢ $290 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 42¢ $65 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $263 20h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $263 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $94 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 65¢ $94 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $99 22h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $130 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $131 22h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 33h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $54 46h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 23¢ $54 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $129 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 36¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 36¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 22¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 21¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 12¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.03 · official $198.02 (match) · 348 history records