Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A0
0xa0ed…8d3c
other · 177 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$7 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$104
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses56 / 119
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)175 / 177
History coverage481d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 2 History 175 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 85¢ $104 $104 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $106 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $120 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $105 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $8 +$1 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $38 +$2 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $156 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $212 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $426 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $196 +$3 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $351 −$3 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $65 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $116 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $254 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $36 +$3 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $40 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $51 −$5 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $11 +$2 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $85 −$2 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $293 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $108 +$1 +1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $13 −$1 -5%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $96 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $4 −$1 -12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $44 −$1 -3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $228 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $111 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $4 $0 -11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $141 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $108 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $15 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $411 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $104 +$5 +5%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $66 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $8 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% −$8
other 26% +$1
politics 17% +$8
sports 14% +$5
economics 3% −$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$3
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $78 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $24 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 11h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 13h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $73 21h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 21h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $105 25h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $6 25h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $5 29h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $104 34h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $26 37h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $78 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $114 39h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $114 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $38 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $102 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 76 +3.1% -6.8% 37% 7% -9.5%
all 175 +1.6% -8.1% 32% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 4% -9.4%
10% -16.9% 2% -18.1%
15% -24.9% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.78 · official $103.76 (match) · 767 history records