Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0ef…3679 crypto 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$696 (-12%) realized −$799 · open +$233
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%102W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$647now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$28
14 days+$58
30 days−$513
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$654
other 14% −$147
world 9% +$259
sports 6% −$24
tech 0% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.9% -29.3% 50% 50% +26.5%
≤30d 165 -8.4% -17.2% 48% 47% -19.7%
≤90d 205 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 49% -22.5%
all 205 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 49% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 49% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 49% -30.0%
15% -29.0% 48% -36.7%
20% -36.0% 45% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$28 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$647
Realized−$799
Unrealized+$233
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses102 / 103
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)205 / 208
History coverage37d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 49¢ 76¢ $413 $647 +$234 (+57%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$16 +87%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $37 +$13 +35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$2 +27%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $3 +$2 +75%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 +$21 +518%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $13 +$12 +91%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 30 $3 +$2 +59%
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Luca Nardi May 29 $3 +$2 +82%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 22 $102 +$85 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 22 $89 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 22 $38 +$29 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 22 $42 +$43 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 22 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 21 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 21 $8 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 21 $7 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 21 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 21 $8 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 21 $9 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 21 $7 +$7 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 20 $29 +$30 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 20 $18 +$17 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $42 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $54 43m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 96¢ $5 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 96¢ $7 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 92¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $131 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $33 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 93¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 85¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 88¢ $5 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 76¢ $4 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 81¢ $5 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 60¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $647.20 · official $647.20 (match) · 1026 history records