Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A0
0xa0f2…1848
sports · 206 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$722,420 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$719,628 · open −$2,687
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$38,251
Realized−$719,628
Unrealized−$2,687
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses73 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$11,336
Open positions13
Markets (closed)193 / 206
History coverage137d
Avg bet$12,233
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 13 History 193 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$156,270
14 days+$143,401
30 days+$273,870
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $11,741 $11,787 +$46 (+0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $11,192 $8,782 −$2,411 (-22%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $7,309 $6,653 −$656 (-9%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $4,769 $5,460 +$692 (+15%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $4,319 $3,943 −$375 (-9%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $479 $499 +$19 (+4%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $382 $364 −$19 (-5%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $257 $306 +$49 (+19%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $181 $188 +$7 (+4%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $114 $116 +$2 (+2%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $133 $103 −$30 (-22%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $41 $31 −$10 (-25%)
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $17 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? No 61¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+64%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes $157 $0 −$157 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $2,014 +$1,954 +97%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 07 $11,305 −$11,305 -100%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 07 $25,228 −$25,228 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $96,734 +$190,623 +197%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $699 +$226 +32%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $29,810 −$13,079 -44%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $144 +$210 +146%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $20,569 −$20,569 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $113 −$113 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $642 +$470 +73%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $530 +$277 +52%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $1,656 −$1,656 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $555 −$555 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Cagliari: Matteo Arnaldi vs Gianluca Cadenasso May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Dusan Lajovic May 21 $2,744 −$1,211 -44%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 21 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 21 $776 −$776 -100%
Saint-Malo: Tereza Valentova vs Moyuka Uchijima May 21 $155 −$155 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $184 −$184 -100%
Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Matteo Arnaldi May 21 $10,271 −$10,271 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 21 $128 −$128 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 21 $1,313 −$1,313 -100%
Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 21 $1,363 −$1,363 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 21 $192 +$332 +172%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 21 $15,192 −$15,192 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 21 $7 −$2 -33%
La Bisbal: Daria Kasatkina vs Tamara Korpatsch May 21 $579 +$163 +28%
Valencia: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Adolfo Vallejo May 21 $198 +$83 +42%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 21 $295 +$343 +116%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 21 $2,683 +$3,907 +146%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 21 $1,777 +$1,149 +65%
Jiujiang: En-Shuo Liang vs Taylah Preston May 21 $1,716 +$1,230 +72%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $88,840 +$177,184 +199%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $157 −$157 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 28 $471 +$235 +50%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 23 $42,500 −$42,500 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 23 $34,000 −$34,000 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $44,000 −$44,000 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 22 $36,500 −$36,500 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 22 $34,500 −$34,500 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 22 $40,000 +$9,700 +24%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 21 $42,500 −$42,500 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 21 $39,500 −$39,500 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 21 $33,500 −$33,500 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Anhelina Kalinina vs Donna Vekic Apr 21 $2,367 −$81 -3%
Barcelona Open: Hamad Medjedovic vs Nuno Borges Apr 21 $80 −$80 -100%
Bulls vs. Mavericks Apr 21 $32,500 +$16,975 +52%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Apr 21 $7 +$3 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$716,638
politics 2% −$3,493
other 0% −$1,974
economics 0% −$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $49 41m
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $39 52m
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $40 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $126 5h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $94 7h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 9h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 19¢ $111 9h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 19¢ $59 10h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 19¢ $59 12h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 12h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $44 13h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $39 14h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 14h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $48 14h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $47 14h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $39 14h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $40 15h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $47 15h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $43 15h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $43 16h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $4 16h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $39 16h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $39 16h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 19¢ $55 16h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 16h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $43 16h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $40 17h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $39 17h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $43 17h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $45 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +25.3% +13.4% 60% 60% +94.5%
≤30d 35 -13.8% -22.0% 40% 40% +68.0%
≤90d 69 -18.5% -26.3% 48% 43% -2.4%
all 193 -32.8% -39.2% 38% 33% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.2% 33% -35.8%
10% -45.0% 27% -41.9%
15% ← realistic here -50.3% 21% -47.6%
20% -55.2% 17% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,250.85 · official $38,251.28 (match) · 3500 history records