Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A0 0xa0f2…9c45 crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$346 (+8%) realized +$362 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate65%28W / 15L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$426
sports 3% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +22.0% +10.4% 65% 60% -0.7%
≤30d 43 +22.0% +10.4% 65% 60% -0.7%
≤90d 43 +22.0% +10.4% 65% 60% -0.7%
all 43 +22.0% +10.4% 65% 60% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.4% 60% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -0.1% 58% -10.2%
15% -9.8% 49% -18.9%
20% -18.6% 40% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$48 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$362
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses28 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage2d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 34¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $114 +$101 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$61 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$40 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $156 −$67 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $165 −$15 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$50 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$35 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$54 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $154 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$34 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$16 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $78 +$82 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$53 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$49 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$28 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $256 −$139 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $282 −$34 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $204 −$61 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $308 +$74 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $274 −$113 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $77 +$29 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $206 +$68 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $90 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $62 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $82 −$18 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$36 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$18 +70%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $36 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $78 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $77 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $63 17m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $77 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $78 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $55 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $8 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $79 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $77 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $76 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $76 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $77 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $77 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $76 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $77 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.81 · official $35.29 · 108 history records