Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

A0 0xa0f3…c368 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$30 (-6%) realized −$29 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$83per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-4.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+5.2%	-4.8%	67%	67%	-17.9%
≤30d	3	+5.2%	-4.8%	67%	67%	-17.9%
≤90d	3	+5.2%	-4.8%	67%	67%	-17.9%
all	3	+5.2%	-4.8%	67%	67%	-17.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.8%	67%	-17.9%
10%	-13.9%	67%	-25.7%
15%	-22.2%	67%	-32.9%
20%	-29.8%	33%	-39.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$58 vs −$147 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.78 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$149

Realized−$29

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)3 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$83

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$100	+$70	+70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$148	−$147	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$99	+$45	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$169	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$100	4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$3	12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$145	13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$99	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.76 · official $148.77 (match) · 9 history records