Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A0 0xa0f3…65b7 sports 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$114 (+30%) realized +$106 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%28W / 26L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$28
other 35% +$5
politics 5% +$93
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% −$4
tech 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +19.0% +7.7% 100% 100% +7.7%
all 54 +24.3% +12.5% 52% 33% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 33% +2.3%
10% +1.7% 28% -7.5%
15% -8.1% 26% -16.5%
20% -17.1% 22% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses28 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)54 / 62
History coverage254d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 77¢ 94¢ $31 $38 +$7 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+22%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 35¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-31%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 08 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump resign in 2025? Feb 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Feb 27 $5 +$15 +306%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 20 $3 +$3 +78%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 20 $4 −$1 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 18 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Nov 17 $1 $0 +42%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $6 −$4 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $5 −$4 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $5 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will the government shutdown end November 15? Nov 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 14? Nov 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 18? Nov 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025? Nov 11 $1 +$99 +7592%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 11? Nov 10 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 10 $5 +$5 +108%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $6 −$2 -36%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Nov 09 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $5 +$2 +53%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $6 +$6 +94%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Nov 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 08 $8 +$2 +33%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 08 $10 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 08 $10 $0 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Nov 08 $10 $0 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 08 $6 +$4 +56%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 08 $10 $0 +3%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $6 +$2 +37%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 30 $4 +$3 +94%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 28 $8 +$7 +80%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Oct 25 $6 $0 +5%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) Oct 25 $8 +$2 +19%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Oct 25 $8 +$2 +22%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 9d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 113d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 SELL Yes 19¢ $6 212d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 SELL Yes 8¢ $2 212d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 SELL Yes 13¢ $4 214d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 214d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? SELL No 6¢ $1 215d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 215d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY Yes 17¢ $5 215d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 SELL Yes 6¢ $2 215d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 SELL Yes 2¢ $1 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 SELL Yes 34¢ $5 215d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 SELL Yes 35¢ $5 215d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY Yes 11¢ $3 216d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY Yes 12¢ $4 217d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 5¢ $1 217d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 6¢ $3 217d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 9¢ $3 217d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 16¢ $5 217d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 18¢ $6 217d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 18¢ $5 217d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 16¢ $5 217d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.38 · official $90.38 (match) · 124 history records