Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A0 0xa0f5…9795 crypto 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$427 (+21%) realized +$423 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%46W / 46L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$94
14 days−$8
30 days+$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$298
other 19% +$27
sports 7% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +86.2% +68.4% 59% 53% +16.8%
≤30d 76 +31.2% +18.7% 50% 46% +5.8%
≤90d 92 +27.4% +15.3% 50% 45% +6.0%
all 92 +27.4% +15.3% 50% 45% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.3% 45% +6.0%
10% +4.3% 40% -4.2%
15% -5.8% 36% -13.4%
20% -15.0% 29% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +49% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$423
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses46 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage42d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $26 $31 +$4 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$71 +718%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $44 −$38 -87%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$7 +140%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 20 $49 −$19 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 20 $18 −$11 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $22 +$21 +96%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +103%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$2 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 18 $21 +$20 +94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $15 −$9 -60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $6 +$34 +560%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $18 $0 -2%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $13 +$6 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 17 $8 +$6 +68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$9 -21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $124 −$28 -22%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $45 −$27 -62%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $52 +$28 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$16 +114%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$4 -22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$7 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $39 −$35 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $13 −$12 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $73 −$37 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$12 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8AM ET Jun 07 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $64 −$39 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $32 +$24 +77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 07 $25 +$11 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $23 +$6 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $32 +$38 +121%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 05 $22 +$99 +452%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $37 +$88 +237%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $5 +$5 +99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $8 +$11 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 04 $7 −$6 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $9 +$19 +206%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $13 +$56 +439%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $8 +$15 +200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $15 −$7 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL No 40¢ $43 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL No 35¢ $38 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No $5 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? SELL Yes $0 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No $5 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? SELL Yes $1 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? SELL Yes $4 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes $16 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes $5 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes $7 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes $6 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $2 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 40h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over $1 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 18¢ $6 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.84 · official $30.84 (match) · 390 history records