Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A0 0xa0f5…9cfe world 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,229 (-6%) realized −$1,215 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate64%48W / 27L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% +$4
politics 27% −$15
other 24% −$1,210
world 10% +$87
crypto 8% −$136
tech 2% +$20
culture 0% +$10
finance 0% +$4
economics 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.8% -2.5% 100% 0% -2.5%
≤30d 4 +16.7% +5.6% 100% 25% -0.6%
≤90d 20 +8.8% -1.6% 85% 45% -1.4%
all 75 -1.1% -10.5% 64% 20% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 20% -15.0%
10% -19.1% 12% -23.1%
15% -26.9% 7% -30.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$53 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$1,215
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses48 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)75 / 81
History coverage260d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 96¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 93¢ 92¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29? No 87¢ 88¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 54¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 29 $150 +$12 +8%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $15 +$7 +45%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 06 $22 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 06 $96 +$8 +9%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? May 26 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect May 26 $17 −$4 -21%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? May 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 13 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 13 $18 +$4 +22%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? May 03 $14 +$7 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 26 $22 −$8 -36%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 16 $18 $0 +2%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 16 $21 +$9 +45%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 14 $14 +$7 +49%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? Apr 04 $18 +$1 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 04 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 04 $22 +$4 +16%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 30 $26 +$3 +11%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026? Mar 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 23 $18 +$5 +28%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $3,057 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 9? Mar 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $1,553 −$2 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? Mar 09 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Mar 01 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Mar 01 $23 +$5 +24%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $6 +$3 +43%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1,412 +$67 +5%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 27 $1,414 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 26 $105 +$2 +2%
Over $60M committed to the Solomon public sale? Feb 24 $1,176 −$1,176 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday? Feb 23 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 20 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026? Feb 20 $21 +$1 +5%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 03 $29 −$4 -12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 03 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 21 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $37 −$4 -10%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 03 $20 +$1 +3%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? Jan 03 $21 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $59 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 93¢ $21 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29? BUY No 87¢ $14 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $162 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 90¢ $150 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $96 34d
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 98¢ $83 34d
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect SELL Yes 72¢ $13 34d
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 90¢ $17 39d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 95¢ $22 39d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $15 46d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 46d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $31 46d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 56d
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? BUY No $6 56d
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 63d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 63d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $22 74d
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 94¢ $80 74d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 74d
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap BUY No 98¢ $18 75d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 75d
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 85d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY No 86¢ $22 90d
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $18 90d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 100¢ $29 90d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 86¢ $20 96d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.54 · official $145.54 (match) · 420 history records