Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0f6…492d sports 836 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$118 (-2%) realized −$122 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%472W / 361L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$66
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$64
weather 24% −$111
other 15% −$9
world 7% −$39
politics 6% −$50
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% −$13
tech 1% −$25
finance 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -22.8% -30.1% 37% 36% -31.3%
≤30d 218 -15.4% -23.5% 50% 44% -20.5%
≤90d 228 -14.6% -22.7% 50% 44% -15.4%
all 833 -6.3% -15.2% 57% 53% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 53% -12.7%
10% -23.3% 49% -21.1%
15% -30.7% 43% -28.7%
20% -37.5% 27% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses472 / 361
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)833 / 836
History coverage156d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 833 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $52 $59 +$7 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C on June 26? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 219 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? Jun 25 $3 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 24? Jun 24 $3 +$5 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 +$2 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $3 +$7 +230%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $82 −$42 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? Jun 23 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23? Jun 23 $12 +$5 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 +$3 +312%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 24? Jun 23 $4 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 24? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 23 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 26? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C on June 26? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? SELL Yes 65¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 25? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.72 · official $58.72 (match) · 1593 history records