Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A0 0xa0f7…0867 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$46 (+23%) realized +$43 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%6W / 5L

Drawdown37%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$19

7 days+$24

14 days+$23

30 days+$40

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+26.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-0.3%	-9.8%	62%	62%	+5.2%
≤30d	11	+39.6%	+26.3%	55%	55%	+12.0%
≤90d	11	+39.6%	+26.3%	55%	55%	+12.0%
all	11	+39.6%	+26.3%	55%	55%	+12.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.3%	55%	+12.0%
10%	+14.2%	36%	+1.3%
15%	+3.2%	27%	-8.5%
20%	-6.9%	27%	-17.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 63% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +40% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage

Net worth$21

Realized+$43

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses6 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage29d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown37%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	22¢	26¢	$17	$21	+$3 (+18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 15	$29	+$6	+19%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 15	$44	+$13	+30%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 11	$8	−$6	-71%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 11	$13	+$2	+12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 11	$11	+$7	+68%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$10	−$10	-91%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 08	$21	+$16	+79%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 08	$10	−$5	-49%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 02	$1	$0	-37%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	May 20	$5	+$31	+575%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	May 17	$15	−$15	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	19¢	$14	1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	49¢	$38	1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	22¢	$8	6h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	22¢	$3	6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	13¢	$7	6h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	41¢	$20	6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	37¢	$19	6h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	22¢	$18	29h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	32¢	$44	29h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	22¢	$30	29h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	SELL Yes	4¢	$1	3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	SELL Yes	36¢	$7	3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	SELL Yes	53¢	$10	3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	SELL Yes	47¢	$8	3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	SELL Yes	8¢	$2	3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	SELL Yes	42¢	$8	3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	BUY Yes	28¢	$11	5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	BUY Yes	20¢	$8	5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	BUY Yes	33¢	$13	5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1	5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	SELL Yes	69¢	$37	6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	SELL Yes	17¢	$5	6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	40¢	$10	7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	34¢	$10	8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	31¢	$10	8d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	SELL Yes	11¢	$1	12d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1	12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	28d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$15	28d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.63 · official $20.23 (match) · 31 history records