Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A0 0xa0f9…3c82 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$92 (+35%) realized +$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$69
crypto 7% +$11
sports 4% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +49.8% +35.6% 83% 83% +66.5%
≤30d 6 +49.8% +35.6% 83% 83% +66.5%
≤90d 6 +49.8% +35.6% 83% 83% +66.5%
all 6 +49.8% +35.6% 83% 83% +66.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.6% 83% +66.5%
10% +22.6% 83% +50.6%
15% +10.7% 83% +36.0%
20% -0.1% 83% +22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$1 · ×18.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×91.35 per $1 lost it wins $91.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$11 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $42 +$48 +116%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$10 +103%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$11 +61%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$12 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $42 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $28 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $17 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.54 · official $150.94 (match) · 18 history records