Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A0 0xa0fa…7318 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$549 (+51%) realized +$549 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$549
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +37.1% +24.0% 71% 57% +36.9%
≤30d 7 +37.1% +24.0% 71% 57% +36.9%
≤90d 7 +37.1% +24.0% 71% 57% +36.9%
all 7 +37.1% +24.0% 71% 57% +36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.0% 57% +36.9%
10% +12.2% 57% +23.8%
15% +1.3% 57% +11.8%
20% -8.6% 57% +0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$100 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.75 per $1 lost it wins $3.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$549
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $210 +$471 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $301 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $153 +$87 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records