Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A0 0xa0fb…c9d6 other 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate49%37W / 39L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% $0
sports 14% +$2
politics 13% $0
crypto 7% $0
world 4% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 0% -9.7%
all 76 +0.4% -9.1% 49% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses37 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage204d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $319 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $215 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $168 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $121 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $102 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $94 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $47 $0 +1%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $25 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 05 $15 $0 +1%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 05 $29 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $47 $0 +1%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Feb 26 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Feb 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 05 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $23 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $26 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $25 17h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $25 21h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $25 21h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $26 26h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $25 38h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $25 40h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $25 41h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $22 41h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $24 47h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $26 47h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $23 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $23 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $23 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $23 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $22 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $26 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $8 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $9 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $26 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $25 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $27 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $25 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $25 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $25 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.26 · official $74.26 (match) · 561 history records