Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A0 0xa0fc…1f56 sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$208 (+7%) realized +$254 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$828now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$119
14 days+$315
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 47% +$87
other 43% +$162
sports 9% −$22
weather 1% −$24
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +35.4% +22.5% 73% 73% +25.7%
≤30d 32 -18.2% -26.0% 47% 41% +2.2%
≤90d 45 -29.0% -35.8% 40% 36% +0.6%
all 45 -29.0% -35.8% 40% 36% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.8% 36% +0.6%
10% -41.9% 33% -9.0%
15% -47.5% 31% -17.8%
20% -52.7% 18% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$6 · ×3.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$828
Realized+$254
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage60d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 81¢ 76¢ $685 $639 −$45 (-7%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $121 $119 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 75¢ 76¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $68 +$42 +61%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 +$2 +50%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$20 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$3 -69%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$30 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$3 -52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June? Jun 16 $88 −$9 -10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$6 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $45 +$21 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $7 +$5 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $224 +$168 +75%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $669 +$47 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $512 +$10 +2%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $253 +$35 +14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $38 −$38 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 09 $4 −$3 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 06 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $7 −$2 -23%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 +$4 +41%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $12 −$12 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $13 −$13 -98%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 13? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 13? May 13 $1 $0 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 13? May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 13? May 13 $2 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on May 13? May 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 12? May 12 $7 +$5 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 12? May 12 $7 −$5 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 12? May 12 $4 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 12? May 12 $1 −$1 -81%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 23 $11 +$4 +35%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $4 +$2 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $62 35m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $60 1h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $70 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 12¢ $3 3d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $30 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 17¢ $2 4d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 4d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 29¢ $2 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $29 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 5d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June? SELL No 80¢ $79 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $45 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $14 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 6d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June? BUY No 88¢ $88 6d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $642 6d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $16 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $30 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $15 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $7 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $337 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $828.35 · official $828.35 (match) · 136 history records