Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0fe…3d53 sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$44
14 days−$23
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$13
other 32% −$37
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -23.4% -30.7% 26% 18% -16.7%
≤30d 41 -19.0% -26.7% 29% 22% -13.0%
≤90d 41 -19.0% -26.7% 29% 22% -13.0%
all 41 -19.0% -26.7% 29% 22% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 22% -13.0%
10% -33.7% 20% -21.3%
15% -40.1% 17% -28.9%
20% -46.0% 15% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage14d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -76%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $60 +$5 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $65 −$10 -15%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $45 +$10 +22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$7 -16%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$2 -20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +85%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $20 −$10 -50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$4 -15%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $30 +$37 +124%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$11 -53%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $16 +$7 +41%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $31 −$4 -14%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $5 +$8 +170%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $18 −$4 -24%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 +$9 +59%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $10 +$11 +104%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 +$12 +118%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $30 −$4 -12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 31 $5 −$3 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 29¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 27¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 21¢ $5 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 18¢ $11 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 16¢ $5 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 16¢ $5 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 16¢ $8 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 20¢ $5 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 20¢ $5 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 84¢ $3 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 84¢ $7 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 80¢ $5 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 81¢ $5 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 76¢ $0 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 76¢ $10 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 71¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 271 history records