Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A0 0xa0fe…234b crypto 278 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$179 (+1%) realized +$179 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate78%217W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$573
other 5% −$445
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -25.0% -32.2% 55% 27% -4.7%
≤30d 11 -25.0% -32.2% 55% 27% -4.7%
≤90d 110 +4.3% -5.6% 75% 52% -0.2%
all 278 +0.7% -8.9% 78% 34% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 34% -8.8%
10% -17.6% 20% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 10% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses217 / 61
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)278 / 278
History coverage134d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 278 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$91 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $55 −$30 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$20 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$8 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$15 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 18 $6 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 18 $122 +$42 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 18 $100 +$6 +6%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 18 $101 +$13 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 18 $300 +$3 +1%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Beijing Ducks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers May 15 $4 $0 +0%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 06 $10 +$5 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 04 $21 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 04 $11 +$4 +37%
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards May 03 $15 +$3 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 02 $102 +$23 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 02 $18 −$8 -45%
Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin May 01 $2 +$4 +188%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 01 $2 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 01 $36 +$13 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 01 $10 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 01 $129 +$8 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 01 $27 +$7 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 01 $96 +$11 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 01 $10 +$5 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1AM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 29 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 29 $5 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - April 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 29 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 1PM ET Apr 28 $5 +$2 +47%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 12PM ET Apr 28 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards Apr 28 $8 −$2 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 12PM ET Apr 28 $21 +$4 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 28 $21 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 28 $102 +$48 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 28 $15 +$5 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 11PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$2 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $13 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $9 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1304 history records