Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A0 0xa0ff…038c other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized +$10 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$31
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$7
politics 35% +$13
sports 12% −$40
crypto 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +51.5% +37.1% 100% 100% +36.8%
≤30d 7 +29.0% +16.7% 86% 86% -7.7%
≤90d 7 +29.0% +16.7% 86% 86% -7.7%
all 7 +29.0% +16.7% 86% 86% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 86% -7.7%
10% +5.5% 86% -16.5%
15% -4.7% 57% -24.6%
20% -14.0% 29% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$40 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage13d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $51 −$40 -78%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $51 +$12 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 85¢ $101 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 10d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 92¢ $62 11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 73¢ $51 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.44 · official $255.44 (match) · 32 history records