Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa107…dc63 sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+3%) realized +$11 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$47
other 22% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.1% 43% 43% -12.5%
≤30d 7 +0.4% -9.1% 43% 43% -12.5%
≤90d 7 +0.4% -9.1% 43% 43% -12.5%
all 7 +0.4% -9.1% 43% 43% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 43% -12.5%
10% -17.8% 29% -20.9%
15% -25.8% 14% -28.6%
20% -33.1% 14% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Under 74¢ 79¢ $49 $52 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $98 −$8 -8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $35 +$11 +32%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 +$8 +17%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $76 −$36 -47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$31 +62%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $34 −$17 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 74¢ $49 21m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $55 24m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 81¢ $47 35m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 87¢ $47 38m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $35 50m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 82¢ $34 51m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 83¢ $35 55m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 38¢ $35 57m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $44 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $40 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $25 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 11h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 45¢ $16 14h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 55¢ $17 14h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $18 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.42 · official $52.42 (match) · 21 history records