Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa108…abd3 other 43 markets active 3h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,113 (+1%) realized +$3,297 · open −$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate87%26W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$6,881per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$101,718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$556
7 days+$663
14 days+$1,009
30 days+$1,558
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$727
other 30% +$823
tech 26% +$940
finance 8% +$249
sports 3% +$98
culture 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -8.5% -17.2% 88% 8% -9.0%
≤30d 30 -9.7% -18.3% 87% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 30 -9.7% -18.3% 87% 7% -8.8%
all 30 -9.7% -18.3% 87% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 7% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 3% -17.5%
15% -33.2% 3% -25.5%
20% -39.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$8,004) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$260 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$101,718
Realized+$3,297
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses26 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions13
Markets (closed)30 / 43
History coverage14d
Avg bet$6,881
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 95¢ $68,900 $70,553 +$1,653 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to Nasdaq-100 in 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $7,180 $7,268 +$88 (+1%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,940 $3,971 +$31 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $3,700 $3,968 +$268 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $4,280 $3,292 −$987 (-23%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,200 $2,222 +$22 (+1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $2,000 $2,100 +$100 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $2,000 $1,989 −$11 (-1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 87¢ 86¢ $2,000 $1,989 −$11 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $1,800 $1,847 +$47 (+3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 94¢ $1,000 $1,087 +$87 (+9%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? Yes 81¢ 98¢ $500 $608 +$108 (+22%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $530 $546 +$16 (+3%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 75¢ 94¢ $220 $277 +$57 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7,203 +$93 +1%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $500 +$7 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,001 +$27 +1%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $196 −$191 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $657 −$650 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3,702 +$71 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8,103 +$87 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $9,505 +$168 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $6,901 +$29 +0%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13,502 +$68 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $22,000 +$44 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8,506 +$211 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14,107 +$232 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,003 +$102 +5%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,003 +$78 +8%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $7,409 +$214 +3%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1,201 +$19 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $402 +$74 +18%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $2,240 +$36 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $1,001 +$20 +2%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 16 $8,004 +$85 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6,950 +$361 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $6,001 +$33 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $2,004 +$101 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $60,017 +$415 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,000 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $800 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,701 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,500 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $800 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,201 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,001 3h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY No 99¢ $230 11h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 99¢ $300 11h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 98¢ $200 11h
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,003 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,000 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $700 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $400 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $130 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $250 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,000 36h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $196 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $657 38h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $3,001 45h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $501 45h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $4,101 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $4,001 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 80¢ $200 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $3,000 2d
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to Nasdaq-100 in 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,601 2d
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY Yes 81¢ $500 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101,718.33 · official $101,705.03 (match) · 154 history records