Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa10a…28b1
other · 63 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,651 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,710 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$318
Realized−$1,710
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 43
Open positions6
Markets (closed)57 / 63
History coverage303d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 6 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 71¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-04? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1,625 $0 −$1,625 (-100%)
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-02-21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? No 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Nets vs. Spurs Nets 24¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $4800 August 11–17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $210 −$10 -5%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-03-01? Mar 02 $50 +$52 +104%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute Feb 09 $317 +$169 +54%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Jan 25 $20 −$18 -90%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jan 25 $100 −$27 -27%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jan 25 $108 −$9 -8%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31 Jan 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour? Jan 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Nov 14 $121 −$42 -35%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Nov 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 05 $20 +$4 +19%
Will AppLovin (APP) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 05 $100 +$19 +20%
Will Robinhood Markets (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 05 $200 +$55 +27%
Will Palantir Technologies (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 05 $200 +$44 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 04 $370 −$370 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Nov 03 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 30 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 30 $200 +$46 +23%
Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 30 $100 +$56 +56%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Oct 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 27 $400 +$50 +12%
Nets vs. Spurs Oct 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bears vs. Ravens Oct 26 $295 +$36 +12%
Dolphins vs. Falcons Oct 26 $150 +$40 +26%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $298 +$56 +19%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? Oct 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? Oct 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 02 $1,625 −$1,625 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Oct 02 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? Sep 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Sep 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Sep 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $5 −$5 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 59% −$1,324
other 22% −$155
finance 9% +$109
sports 5% +$24
economics 2% −$180
politics 1% −$37
culture 1% −$100
world 1% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 1h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2d
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 6¢ $10 68d
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 96¢ $274 68d
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 70¢ $200 68d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 70d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 70d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-03-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 104d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-03-01? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 104d
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 42¢ $150 110d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-02-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 112d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 6¢ $20 125d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute BUY Yes 87¢ $272 140d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute SELL Yes 2¢ $2 140d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL Yes 8¢ $73 140d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $99 140d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute BUY Yes 57¢ $5 140d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute BUY Yes 27¢ $20 140d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute BUY Yes 32¢ $20 140d
Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31 BUY Yes 4¢ $40 140d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute BUY Yes 20¢ $20 140d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 140d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute BUY Yes 22¢ $20 140d
Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31 BUY Yes 5¢ $5 140d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 151d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $81 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-64.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 57 -60.5% -64.3% 25% 25% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.3% 25% -26.3%
10% -67.7% 16% -33.4%
15% -70.8% 11% -39.8%
20% -73.7% 9% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.94 · official $317.94 (match) · 231 history records